Good Morning

As the UK slowly returns to normality, the currency markets continued to worry last week about the impact of this on inflation and whether Central Banks will be too tardy in their response. The Royal Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada signaled their intentions to raise rates in 2022, as Dr. Gertjan Vlieghle, a Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee member, voiced his concerns. His comments helped sterling spike back towards $1.4200, the top of its recent range, even though his remarks were heavily caveated, However, with the markets shut for holidays yesterday, Friday became the de facto month-end, and rebalancing unsettled the dollar, and it has continued to weaken this morning.

As customary for the first week of the month, the data docket is dominated by the unemployment reports released throughout the week culminating in the all-encompassing non-farm payroll employment report on Friday. The euro has opened at $1.2220 this morning. The Eurozone releases its inflation data ahead of the European Central Bank’s next meeting on 10th June with the central bank prevaricating over their next steps.

UK

Last week, the pound put in a good performance against most of its peers, and this looks set to continue with its opening at €1.1640 this morning. It responded as we said earlier, to the comments from the Bank of England whilst ignoring the political fallout from Dominic Cumming’s testimony about the handling of Covid. London is gradually returning to work, and the comments from Andrew Bailey and his colleagues to the Treasury Select Committee of the House of Commons, on Thursday, will be followed closely for any signs of hawkishness as will his speech this evening. Apart from the testimonies, it is another quiet week for data in the UK apart from the final readings of the Purchasing Manager’s Indexes starting today with those from the Manufacturing sector and followed on Wednesday with Services

Euro

As with all economies, markets are studying inflation and employment data for clues to recoveries and subsequent tightening of rates. This week, it’s the turn of the Eurozone to publish their reports, starting today with the release of its Core and Headline Inflation data for May. After yesterday’s Consumer Price Index releases across the continent, these may surprise the upside. We will also be keeping an eye on German Unemployment data released as this hits your mailbox. The response from European Central Bankers is limited as they enter into a week-long verbal blackout from Thursday before their next council meeting on 10th June. Also released this week, the European Markit Purchasing Managers Indexes start today with their Manufacturing and followed with the other sectors during the week. Tomorrow sees German Retail Sales for April reported as well as April’s Eurozone Producer Price Index. Also released is a report concerning the euro’s international role, which should show the growing use of the single currency on the international stage and may add a little strength to the single currency.

US

After Personal Consumption Expenditure came in slightly higher than expected at 3.1% on Friday, there was some selling of US Bonds, exacerbated by the reports of President Biden unveiling a $6tln budget, leading to higher yields and making the dollar more attractive. It will be interesting to watch how the market trends this week ahead of the key non-farm payroll data released this coming Friday. The 266,000 jobs created in April disappointed the market the last time the figures were reported. This data set will be closely studied for anomalies as there seems to be demand for workers, with supply that is the problem. Before the Non-Farm data, ADP will release their private-sector employment report tomorrow, not always the most reliable indicator, and the weekly Jobless claims on Thursday. Apart from the unemployment data, the ISM business surveys are also out. A busy schedule of speakers from The Federal Reserve awaits us.

Scandi

The Swedish krona was pretty much rangebound against the euro, and there were no major movements despite data showing that wages increased by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. Today we will get the Swedbank PMI Manufacturing data and, later in the week, the Current Account Balance and the Budget Balance. Most traders and market participants expect the delayed krona bull run to make steam this month after May turned out to be one of the least volatile months ever with movements within a 10 öre range against the euro and pretty much a 5 öre range against Sterling.

The Norwegian krone weakened throughout May, and its impressive bull run has been somewhat halted despite rumours about a potential rate hike come September. This week we will get the DNB PMI Manufacturing data followed by the Current Account Balance figure on Wednesday.

We would like to encourage our clients and partners trading with any of the Scandinavian or Nordic countries to start preparing for the month-long summer holiday starting after Midsummer. Should you wish to speak to one of us about how flows over the summer could be managed most effectively, reach or reply to this email directly.

Have a great week.

Mathew

Support and resistance levels

GBP/USD Support 1.4123 Resistance 1.4284

EUR/USD Support 1.2148 Resistance 1.2292

GBP/EUR Support 1.1576 Resistance 1.1672

If you want to get the best currency exchange rates and protect yourself from currency fluctuations ask me here: mathew@lanjaronproperty.com

It can be useful to know a few words and phrases for house hunting in Spanish when you’re looking for your new life dream home in Spain. Here’s a small selection. If you would like to know more, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with our bilingual team.

Homes/Hogares

  • Terraced house
  • Casa adosada

 

  • Detached house
  • Vivienda unifamiliar

 

  • With nice views
  • Con unas buenas vistas

 

  • In the country
  • En el campo

 

  • In the suburbs
  • En las afueras

 

  • In a good neighbourhood
  • En un buen barrio

 

  • On the first floor
  • En el primer piso

 

  • Within walking distance of the shops
  • Se puede ir andando a las tiendas

 

  • The house had a lovely view of the mountains.
  • La casa tenía unas vistas fantásticas a las montañas.

 

  • We live in a very rough part of town.
  • Vivimos en una parte peligrosa de la ciudad.

 

  • My friends live in a very rich neighbourhood.
  • Mis amigos viven en rico vecindario.

 

  • We keep all our wine in the cellar.
  • Guardamos todo nuestro vino en la bodega.

 

  • All the rooms in the hotel have en-suite bathrooms.
  • Todas las habitaciones del hotel tienen baños.

 

  • Carol has spent a lot of money on her new fitted kitchen.
  • Carol se ha gastado mucho dinero en su nueva cocina a medida.

 

  • I’m going to clear out the garage this weekend.
  • Voy a limpiar el garaje este fin de semana.

 

  • The house also has a large basement.
  • La casa también tiene un sótano grande.

 

  • The garden was smaller than I expected.
  • El jardín era más pequeño de lo que esperaba.

 

  • My sister’s flat is a lot closer to the centre.
  • El piso de mi hermana está mucho más cerca del centro.